History of Justin Trudeau’s Canada Series Part II: Polls and Surveys
Do Canadians really value multiculturalism, diversity, and inclusion?
This is Part II of my exploration of the History of Justin Trudeau’s Canada. Please subscribe to see the rest of the series.
In the introduction to this series, I proposed that Justin Trudeau successfully rose to power by appealing to a particular version of Canadian history and values - based on his campaign rhetoric that “diversity is at the very heart of Canada.” Before we explore the historical origins of this vision, I want to put some numbers to my analysis, starting with the results of the 2015 election.
My starting assumption was that Justin Trudeau won the 2015 election because he appeals to a version of Canadian history, values, and identity that is shared by 60%-70% of the Canadian population - mainly, that Canada is a diverse and multicultural mosaic, where everyone is welcome and differences are celebrated.
On October 19, 2015, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party won the 2015 federal election in decisive fashion, winning 39.5% of the popular vote and a 184 seat majority in the House of Commons, including every seat in Atlantic Canada and four seats in Alberta for the first time since 1968.
Another 23.1% of the vote went to other left-wing parties, with the New Democratic Party at 19.7% and 44 seats and the Green Party at 3.4% and 1 seat. That’s 62.6% of the popular vote that, I assumed, supported the idea of Canada as a divisive and multicultural nation, with the Liberals winning the majority of votes.
This assumption can be supported by Abacus Data issues polls from the 2019 federal election, where a large majority of voters who listed Reducing Discrimination and Indigenous Reconciliation as top issues, admittedly only 7% and 5% of respondents, supported one of the three left-wing parties.
That said, it would be a mistake to assume that only left-leaning voters view Canada as a divisive and multicultural nation or that right-wing voters don’t share the values of Justin Trudeau’s Canada. 18% of respondents who listed Reducing Discrimination as a top 3 issue were Conservative voters and 23% for Indigenous Reconciliation.
Indeed, data from a 2013 Statistics Canada survey on Canadian identity shows that Canadians overwhelmingly support the values of a multicultural Canada. 93% of Canadians identified the Charter of Rights and Freedoms as a very important (70%) or somewhat important (23%) national symbol. A majority of respondents also identified diversity and multiculturalism as values shared by all Canadians. 96% said that human rights were a shared Canadian value, 97% for gender equality, 95% for ethnic and cultural diversity, and 92% for respect for Aboriginal culture. 88% of respondents said they were proud of Canadian history, 81% proud of Canada’s Constitution, and 80% proud of Canada’s treatment of all groups in society.
A 2016 survey conducted by the Angus Reid Institute and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation asked more specific questions, and showed more mixed results. 64% said that Canada should work towards “greater acceptance of people who are LGBTQ,” 67% were satisfied with “how well new immigrants are integrating into your community,” and 59% said Canada should “expand policies aimed at improving the situation for Indigenous Canadians.”
But on the other hand, 68% of respondents said that “minorities should do more to fit in better with mainstream Canadian society,” an increase from 57% in a 1993 Angus Reid survey. That number includes 86% of Conservative voters surveyed, 61% Liberal voters, and 60% NDP voters.
Despite what can only be described as overwhelming support for diversity and multiculturalism as Canadian values, then, Canadians seem to hold rather schizophrenic views on the issue of immigration.
A June 2020 poll commissioned by the right-wing True North Centre suggested that 76% of Canadians supported a temporary pause on immigration during the COVID-19 pandemic, including 67% of Liberal voters, 66% NDP voters, and 89% Conservative voters.
Some polling data before the pandemic also shows that Canadians believe the country is accepting too many immigrants. A June 2019 Leger poll put the number a 63%. But other polls show support for immigration. A November 2019 Environics Institute poll showed the exact opposite number, with 63% of respondents disagreeing that Canada accepts too many immigrants.
Returning to Abacus Data’s 2019 issues poll, of respondents who listed Managing Immigration as a top three issue, 23% intended to vote Liberal, 46% Conservative, 10% NDP, and 9% Green, and Securing the Border, 14% Liberal, 59% Conservative, 5% NDP, and 6% Green. These numbers can be interpreted two ways. For Conservative voters, managing immigration and securing the border could mean reducing immigration numbers and preventing people from crossing the border illegally. Left-wing voters could share this opinion, or they could trust the Liberals, NDP, or Greens to maintain higher immigration numbers or to allow refugees across the border.
Not surprisingly, this analysis shows that Canadian values and identity are more complicated than the simple dichotomy that I began with. By planting his flag on diversity and inclusion, Justin Trudeau fit his message to how 80%-90% of Canadians think about their country, but it’s more complicated than that.
Canadians might overwhelmingly agree that diversity, multiculturalism, and inclusion are important Canadian values, but they don’t appear to be decided on issues like immigration. Liberal and left-wing voters might emphasize a diverse array of values and cultures in the Canadian mosaic, while conservatives are more likely to speak of Canadian values like freedom and family that are shared by Canadians of diverse origins.
But where do these ideas come from? In the next History of Justin Trudeau’s Canada post, we’ll begin by looking at the history of Canadian identity and values in the first decades after Confederation in 1867. During that time, mainstream Canadian society envisioned Canada as an Anglo-Saxon, protestant nation, not the multicultural mosaic of today.
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